The major reason why the latest move by General Pervez Musharraf to impose an Emergency will not last is because it doesn’t have the support of the people. There is also no other infrastructure supporting him. There are several reasons for this. The Constitution has been abrogated. The judiciary has been made compliant. The media has also been suppressed and sidelined. All the leaders of political parties who are opposing the Emergency have been arrested. And civil society is not being allowed to protest. So it is a situation wherein people are angry and don’t approve of what has been done.

President Musharraf has been at least candid enough in admitting that the policies he had initiated were in such a bad state that he had to resort to martial law or what you call an Emergency.

In a way he has done a coup onto himself. Now if this policy had not worked earlier, why should it work now? It’s not so much that his basic policies were faulty as that of his vision and the way it was implemented. When you want to fight terrorism and extremism, you have to work with the cooperation of the people because it is not a conventional war. It is a war in which there is no territory.

There is no strategic objective apart from the need to win the hearts and minds of the people. So in order to do this, you need their cooperation. You have to have the moderate and liberal forces on your side along with the political system. Instead, President Musharraf was trying to pursue his policies in a political vacuum.

Most importantly, by virtue of the military having been involved in politics and engaged in governance, the divide between civilian and military has increased. When you emerge powerful and do not share power with anybody, the divide becomes even greater.

This not only affects governance but also alienates the moderate and liberal forces. My other fear is that in the Frontier Province and Balochistan, particularly among the Pashtun sects, where troops are fighting militants, things are getting dangerous

One of the reasons why militancy has increased is because governance is poor and the people feel alienated. The liberal and moderate forces are suppressed. When there is no access to justice, exploitation grows. The divide grows wider between the people and the government.

There is no accountability at the local level, in the judiciary or in Parliament now. That is why in the human development index, Pakistan is one of the lowest in south Asia. Development work is lagging and vital needs such as education, health facilities and transport have been neglected.

Right now to solve Pakistan’s problems what we need is greater coalition and unity among political parties and the segments of society. The Emergency, in fact, completely goes against all that. And in a way it also undermines the war on terrorism.

As far as the possibility of a counter-coup is concerned, Musharraf has been very smart in that he has appointed the right sort of people in key positions. So, that will help to a point. But the military always reflects, on an average, the sentiments of society. This is not a colonial army. And it has an uncomfortable feeling that the civilians are not happy. Like every normal citizen of Pakistan, the military has to be concerned about the situation.

When he took over in 1999, Musharraf had a golden opportunity to relay the foundation of the country. He had done well all these years but in the past few months he seems to have undone all the good work. The extreme action he has taken is clearly unsustainable. He will soon have to take a big U-turn, otherwise the future of Pakistan is in grave danger.

The author served in the Pakistani Army for 39 years and retired in 1990 as Secretary for Defence Production.