Pakistan ’s General-President Pervez Musharraf talked about how he was taunted by people around him who jeered him for not taking control of the situation. So, in the tradition of a good patriarch he is back in power. But the question is how will he steer the country and in which direction?

It is obvious that the Martial Law was imposed to strengthen his position and get rid of elements in the judiciary he could no longer control. A strong and questioning judiciary was problematic for Musharraf, his partners and cronies, and other political leaders as well.

The more important question, however, is how will the political issue resolve? And how long will this state of affairs continue? Musharraf extending his rule for another five years wearing two hats is not a possibility. His senior officers will not be comfortable with this option, especially when they expect change in the highest command.

Some sources argue that one of the reasons Musharraf was delayed by 45 minutes in delivering his speech on November 3 was that some of his generals and other close aides disagreed with his decision. So, how long can Musharraf continue in this position is a big question.

A possible scenario is that the army’s highest command, which might not be privy to this decision, may oust Musharraf forcibly. Such a possibility indicates towards the Emergency being Musharraf’s act of signing his own death warrant.

But there are some in the military circles who believe that following organisational traditions, the vice-chief will never sack his boss and continue to support him. The absence of action from the military means transformation of the organisation from a professional force to an exploitative force whose senior echlons choose to support its chief for personal benefits.

A possible route is to hold elections at the earliest. He can hold them in the next two months or delay them for a year or even longer. The ultimate choice will depend on three factors: confidence within PML-Q, mood within the army and reaction of the international community.

There is a possibility that an election date may be announced as soon as PML-Q is confident of getting more seats against its main contender, PPP. Reportedly, the elections will be fiercely contended between these two parties with a possible rigging against PML-N. The regime is against Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan and would like to reduce, if not eliminate, Sharif’s dominance in central Punjab.

Interestingly, none of the PPP leaders were arrested in the days after imposition of the Emergency and the only ones arrested were from PML-N or people connected with the lawyers’ movement. PPP happens to be one of the beneficiaries of the Emergency because the Supreme Court was also hearing cases against the National Reconciliation Ordinance which is instrumental in withdrawal of the cases against Benazir Bhutto. Even if she becomes the next prime minister, the question is will she reverse the change brought about in the higher judiciary?

The US, so far, has not cut aid to Pakistan. There is a possibility that the resolve to put pressure might get diluted especially once Washington gets into its own election cycle. In this case, Pakistan might extend its extraordinary circumstances and use the time to fight extremists. Musharraf will try to convince the US of the need for the Emergency on the basis of the war on terror.

But then there is the army which might not be too happy with the General continuing in power for too long, especially as the service chief. This problem could be sorted out through Musharraf seeking a favourable judgement from the reconstituted Supreme Court which will make it possible for the General to doff his uniform and let General Kiyani become the army chief. The other possibility is for Musharraf to continue wearing the uniform for a year until election date is announced.

Each of the factors makes a decision difficult. Even if elections are held soon, democracy is marred and affected due to this surge of authoritarianism at the top. The country is completely bereft of leadership that could fight the forces of authoritarianism in the country.

The author is a security analyst and has written a book Military Inc: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy.