Slowly, over the past eight years, particularly over the past eight months, Musharraf has frittered away the goodwill that had been his strength. He now faces severe challenges to his rule as an isolated figure in a world different from the one he came into.

For most of November 3, despite strong rumours from the day before that the government was about to initiate “drastic measures”, most of Pakistan went about its business, unwilling to believe that anything dire could be possible. The speculation had stemmed from the drawn-out ending of the court case being heard by an 11-member Supreme Court bench regarding Musharraf’s eligibility to remain President.

General Musharraf’s inner coterie was obviously on the edge but for most Pakistanis it was another political drama to be followed over the course of the coming days. Far more riveting in the immediate term for them was the news coming out of Swat in the north-west where a white steed-riding militant, Fazlullah, also known as Maulana Radio—because of the illegal FM channels he controls—had taken on the might of the Pakistan Army. Then suddenly TV screens went blank.

In his address to the nation on statecontrolled Pakistan Television, almost six hours after the proclamation of Emergency, General Musharraf claimed that he could not watch while the country, which he “loved with his heart and soul”, “committed suicide.”

Few believed any of the high-sounding reasons he gave for taking the action he did. Most saw it simply as his desperate act of self-preservation, in the face of fears that the Supreme Court would rule against him. In fact, well placed sources indicate that he was eventually won over by those within his party, the Pakistan Muslim League, who insisted that any action taken after an adverse ruling by the Supreme Court would be meaningless and who themselves had the most to fear in a fair election without the backing of Musharraf.

It is now clear that the same elements were able to convince Musharraf that it was the media that was fanning the flames of popular unrest. They had seen during the lawyers’ movement against the earlier ousting on March 9 of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry the role the live coverage played in garnering popular support against the government. Their solution was simple: remove the electronic media from the equation altogether.

If General Musharraf ever thought containing popular resentment against his act would be as easy as turning off the airwaves, he could not possibly be thinking so now. The reaction was swift as thousands of lawyers took to the streets refusing to accept his order and calling for a boycott of the courts, leading to fierce clashes with the police. Newspaper pages were filled with defiant messages from sacked judges and condemnation from the public.

Most unsettlingly for the regime, Musharraf’s actions drew sharp rebuke from around the world including US President George Bush. Most people continue to believe that General Musharraf could not possibly have undertaken such a drastic move without a nod from the US administration. However, reactions from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Bush have not been comforting for Musharraf’s remaining supporters.

The US administration called the Emergency “deeply disappointing” and the White House said aid to Pakistan would be reviewed. Although no one expects US assistance to be drastically cut, given the Americans’ need for Pakistan’s cooperation in Afghanistan, the American Government’s statements indicate that patience in Washington with Musharraf is wearing thin. Even as calls increased within the US foreign policy circle to censure Musharraf, Bush sent a blunt message to the Pakistani President that he expected him to honour his commitment to step down as army chief and hold elections on schedule.

That may be easier said than done, now that Musharraf needs his army fatigues more than ever. There is increasing disquiet even within the armed forces over the likely repercussions of the current state of events. “This is going to sink the army,” says a retired colonel on the condition of anonymity.

“People were already upset with us, they are now going to openly turn against us.” A day after the imposition of Musharraf’s decree, rumours spread like wildfire that the corps’ commanders had staged a coup and put Musharraf under house arrest. Musharraf dismissed it as “a joke of the highest order’. The stock market reacted to the rumours of instability by crashing almost five per cent, wiping out almost Rs 19,000 crore of capitalisation. The wheels of the regime were coming off.