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The dry run
Priya Sahgal
New Delhi

With six states slated to go to the polls, the next round of Aassembly elections are being seen as a dry run for the general elections '09. What gives an added twist is that in four of these states there will be a direct confrontation between the BJP and the Congress.

Currently the BJP is ruling in three of the four states. But the Congress is hoping to reverse this equation in its favour. Unfortunately the party is sticking to its age old practice of not fielding chief ministerial candidates except in states where there is already a sitting CM. This according to Congress strategists prevents the infighting and sabotage from the factional leaders who are left out. However, there are some regional satraps who are ahead of the others such as Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh and Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan. While Nath is not contesting the state election, Gehlot is renewing his MLA ticket.

The result of these elections will decide the timing of the next general elections, which could either be in February or April (The month of March is ruled out by the EC because of the school examinations). Even a 2:2 score card would bolster the Congress camp currently reeling under charges of ushering in an economic slow down and being soft on terror. Although the state elections will be fought on local issues, the performance of the central government does matter. After all, price hike became a major issue in the last round of polls in Uttarakhand, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Himachal while terrorism was an issue in the Gujarat elections leaving the Congress led Central government rather red faced. Added to this is Rahul Gandhi's contention that the party should not carry on a negative campaign against the sitting BJP CMS. This leaves the state Congress units little options as most of the achievements of the central government such as NREG and nuclear deal make little sense at the local level. What does not help either is the fact that the NREG is implemented at the local level so it is the state government that gets the credit instead of the central.

The mood is slightly more upbeat in the BJP camp but just about. The party too is plagued with infighting, both at the central and state level. Venkaiah Naidu has been given the election charge of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh while Ravi Shankar Prasad gets to handle Chhattisgarh. Naidu's appointment in Rajasthan was not welcomed by the general secretary in charge of the state, Gopinath Munde. In fact, most general secretaries are chaffing at this two tier command system.

In addition Maywati is on a rampage. She as LK Advani pointed out, may not gain much but will play the role of a spoiler - a spoiler in the Congress vote bank. Unlike the Congress and the BJP she has already announced most of her candidates for Delhi, MP and Rajasthan. Another player for the secular vote bank the Samajwadi Party being shown the cold shoulder by the Congress has also decided to contest the elections on its own. More trouble for the Congress. All in all, it's going to be an interesting round of elections.

  
 
 
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OPINION
Currently the score card in the four highprofile states situated in the Hindi heartland - and where the fight is directly between Congress and the BJP - is 3:1 in BJPs favour.
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POLL QUESTION
Will Assembly election results have an impact on Lok Sabha polls?
 
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